How consumer AI will evolve: product, distribution, and emotional relationships

Executive overview

Consumer AI adoption is already massive, but the products that will define it haven't been built yet. The platform shift from attention to relationship changes what's possible — AI can now build context over time, turning transactions into ongoing connections.

The builders who approach consumer AI from first principles — not by adding AI onto existing experiences — will create the category-defining products.

Why consumer AI is different from previous platform shifts

• Internet and mobile were about outcomes and attention; AI moves into relationships and affection
• ChatGPT proved consumers are ready: fastest consumer launch in history, hundreds of millions of daily users
• Voice interaction unlocks richer data than typing — ideas unfold, context accumulates
• Continuous learning loop: AI builds context over time rather than responding to one-off data points
• Memory that compounds across conversations is the next unlock — intuiting forward from a history, not just retrieving facts
• The shift from transaction to relationship creates stronger retention than anything seen in previous cycles

The messy creative stage

• Products are still mostly chat bars; the right interfaces for each category haven't been invented yet
• Trying many approaches is necessary — the big idea only emerges through iteration
• First movers have a real advantage: surprise and delight create a connection that later entrants can't replicate
• Being early means being part of the conversation; the nth entrant is just keeping up
• Dollar Shave Club's viral video worked because YouTube marketing was new — it won't work for the 30th company doing the same thing

Building the right product

• Strip everything away: why does someone need this, why will they come back, why will they add it to an already crowded life?
• No shortcut to distribution — the best marketing is a product people actually need
• Founders who think they have a product-marketing problem usually have a product-market fit problem
• Network effects and product-led growth remain the highest-value distribution lever
• Tailor messaging to each channel — word of mouth, TikTok, and ads each require a different angle
• Consumer savvy is high: marketing that feels inauthentic or gimmicky gets seen through

Distribution lessons from iconic consumer brands

• Chime, Warby Parker, Dollar Shave Club all succeeded by meeting a real need in a new way, not through a single channel trick
• The social web enabled a new go-to-market: launch with a website, test demand without a nine-month retail prep cycle
• CPG word-of-mouth went from 4% to 48% of sales in five years — the shift happened faster than anyone predicted
• Early in a platform shift, novelty can get you to initial scale; it can't sustain a long-term business

Health, wellness, and personal security as high-opportunity categories

• Healthcare has been largely reactive; consumers are now proactive — the trend has run for a decade and still has room
• Concierge doctor access is cost-prohibitive for most people; AI closes that gap with personalised, context-rich health guidance
• Integrating wearables, blood data, health records, and real-time queries creates the equivalent of a specialist in your pocket
• GLP-1 drugs illustrate second- and third-order effects: one intervention (cravings) unlocks unexpected behaviour changes (nail-biting, alcohol)
• Personal security — stable finances, stable career — is a genuine consumer need in a high-uncertainty environment
• These two trends converge: technology that helps people feel secure and flourish is where the emotional AI layer has the most impact

Where to build: advice for founders

• Target categories where a relationship is natural — those are hardest for existing platforms to retrofit
• Build into the tailwind of LLM progress, not against it; don't compete with the models, extend them
• Think from first principles about what the best experience in a category would look like if built today from scratch
• Bold interface experiments matter now — the chat bar is not the final form
• Need beats novelty: novelty opens a door, need keeps people coming back
• Anything that consolidates problems or reduces switching costs earns a place in people's lives