Buying a Miami condo as an investment: does the math work?

Executive overview

A $1M mortgage-financed Miami condo can nearly break even on rental income, but only barely — and that assumes 75% occupancy and professional property management. The real bet is appreciation, which has been strong but is now uncertain as the market slows.

Break-even is achievable, but appreciation is the actual investment thesis.

The condo economics at a glance

• Purchase price: ~$1M (two-bedroom ocean-view unit, e.g. Hyde Beach House)
• Down payment $200K → mortgage ~$4,383/month
• HOA: ~$1,500/month; property taxes: ~$1,300/month
• Gross Airbnb revenue: ~$10,000/month at 75% occupancy
• Property management fee: 20–30% of revenue
• Net result: roughly break-even (~$4,200 remaining vs. $4,300 mortgage)

Appreciation history and risks

• Many Miami condos doubled in value within two years during 2020–2022
• Specific examples: $450K → $700K+ in Aventura; $420K → $750K in Edgewater
• High condo inventory on the market signals potential difficulty reselling
• Market is visibly slowing: homes sitting two to three weeks rather than selling in days
• Broader talk of a September 2022 crash adds uncertainty

Condo vs. single-family home

• Condo: ocean-adjacent, hotel amenities, HOA and short-term rental restrictions vary by building
• Single-family home: no HOA, private pool, more flexibility for Airbnb — but requires driving to the beach
• House appeals to families wanting a "home base" feel; condo appeals to those wanting walkability
• Economics are roughly equivalent at the same budget

Miami lifestyle considerations

• Pace is noticeably slower and more relaxed than Silicon Valley
• Weather and warm ocean water are major draws, especially compared to cold California coast
• Predictability for family travel: knowing your unit, your neighborhood, your routines
• Slower pace can be a productivity drag for high-output founders and operators

Decision framework and next steps

• Sit and wait two to three months before buying
• Monitor whether the anticipated September 2022 market correction materialises
• Use the window to deepen knowledge of Florida real estate and rental regulations
• Consider whether personal use (two to three weeks per year) plus rental income justifies the purchase even without strong appreciation