Crypto investing, Web3 opportunities, and NFTs with Luke Belmar

Executive overview

Most people in crypto bet on tokens. The better bet is on people and ecosystems with real backing behind them. NFTs are not a speculative art market — they are infrastructure for community access, ownership validation, and physical-world verification.

The biggest near-term Web3 opportunity is servicing existing Web2 communities with Web3 products, not building new ones from scratch.

Web3 wins when it reduces friction without reducing freedom — and the builders who create seamless front-end experiences for blockchain will capture most of the value.

Crypto investment strategy

• Bet on founders and ecosystems, not tokens in isolation
• Prefer projects with known founders and the potential to disrupt established industries
• BNB and the Binance Smart Chain favoured for efficiency; Ethereum's post-merge centralisation via Consensus/MetaMask is a concern
• "Decentralisation" is a spectrum — most Web3 users still live centralised lives (bank accounts, centralized devices, internet)
• True decentralisation is nearly impossible; focus on reducing friction, not eliminating centralisation

Crypto as private cash

• As fiat loses value, Bitcoin's dollar price rises — not because Bitcoin becomes more valuable but because dollars become less valuable
• Satoshis may become the unit of everyday physical peer-to-peer transactions
• Physical USB-style transfers could make Bitcoin transactions untraceable when cash disappears
• This mirrors Bitcoin's original use case and will be a major driver of future value

XRP and SEC politics

• SEC heads were likely seed investors in Ethereum, giving them vested interest in Ethereum's dominance
• Lawsuit against XRP interpreted as competitive suppression, not legitimate regulatory action
• XRP already widely used outside the US (Japan, South Korea) — US outcome matters less than perceived
• XRP is positioned for bank and central bank (ECB, BIS) settlement use; it is not a consumer currency

The Web3 agency opportunity

• Service existing Web2 communities with Web3 products rather than building new communities from scratch
• Example: a skateboarding community NFT pass giving global park access for $20 — tight-knit, self-sustaining
• Token gating is the mechanism: own the NFT = access granted, frictionless and automatic
• This mirrors the early social media marketing gold rush — the earlier you move, the bigger the advantage
• 2023 outlook: sideways-to-down market; central bank digital currencies likely introduced 2030–2050, giving ~10–30 years to accumulate

NFT use cases beyond art

• Ticketing: blockchain validation eliminates screenshot fraud and resolves ownership disputes
• Physical goods: NFTs on sneakers and other items merge digital provenance with physical objects
• Car history: one company is logging every car event (oil changes, steering inputs) on-chain via NFT — a permanent, ownable CarFax
• Identity: South Korea piloting blockchain-backed digital IDs for all citizens by 2024 to cut administrative costs
• Winning companies will build seamless front-end UIs that hide the blockchain from the user

Risks of digital identity and surveillance

• Digital ID systems are convenient but create infrastructure that can be weaponised by bad governments
• China example: facial recognition tickets jaywalkers automatically, linked directly to home address
• Canada froze trucker bank accounts and crypto wallets — centralised compliance erases decentralisation
• The 5% bad-government scenario yields centuries of control; convenience is not worth that trade-off
• Maintain location flexibility to operate from jurisdictions with fewer controls

What the NFT space gets wrong

• Founding relationships are transactional from day one; this makes everything that follows feel like a financial obligation
• Anonymous founders receiving millions (e.g. PixelMon) is a self-inflicted risk — accountability requires identity
• Holder communities destroy projects by demanding short-term returns and driving away talent
• "Wag me" culture and influencer promotion often mask personal bag-securing, not genuine community building

Building a network that compounds

• A trusted tribe of 300 people across different industries is more powerful than millions of followers
• 300 people each netting $1M/year = $300M network in year one; compounds from there
• Operate like the wealthy do: pooled funds, shared deals, distributed holdings
• NFTs are a credible gateway for forming these high-trust internet tribes
• Self-optimisation (diet, reading, sleep) directly improves decision quality and investment outcomes