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How to decide what to build next: Michael Seibel's product cycle framework
Executive overview
Most product decisions can't be predicted correctly in advance. The goal is not to identify the right thing to build — it's to build fast enough to find out what works.
A fast iteration process beats a perfect prediction every time.
The core framework
- Build an MVP, measure the result, iterate only what works — then repeat.
- Speed of execution matters more than correctness of prediction.
- A technically talented team that ships MVPs quickly outperforms a visionary who guesses right occasionally.
- Long-horizon vision requires imagination; short-term tactical decisions require process.
The Justin.tv mistake
- Seibel's team at Justin.tv fell into "swing for home runs" thinking — treating every feature as a potential grand slam.
- Each attempt took three months because it had to be "perfect."
- Waiting for perfection before shipping triggers a spiral of death.
- The fix: rip things out quickly, keep only what the data shows is working.
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