Social media marketing, attention arbitrage, and building business conviction

Executive overview

Most brands waste social media effort chasing algorithms and vanity metrics instead of treating attention as a tradeable asset. The core shift: social has moved from follower-based "email marketing" to interest-graph-driven content, where a brand with 19 followers can reach a million people if the post is good enough.

Platform maturity follows a supply-demand curve — early movers on TikTok captured cheap attention; Instagram is now the "pros league." The winning move is to find where supply is low, publish relentlessly, and convert proven organic content into ads.

The best social strategy is reps, not tactics — volume and lived experience surface what works; no one figures it out theoretically.

The tiktokification of all social

• Algorithms now reward content quality, not follower count — the interest graph has replaced the social graph.
• Platform maturity mirrors real estate: early TikTok was Malibu beachfront; Instagram today is far inland.
• More ads and more content are competing for shrinking organic attention on mature platforms.
• Instagram requires "best practices of the moment" — e.g., meme-plus-video two-post carousel — and constant observation of what's working right now.
• LinkedIn sits in a different context: users are there for business, so direct commercial messaging hits harder than on entertainment-first platforms.

Converting organic reach into revenue

• Viral content builds brand; ads build performance — the combination is brandformance.
• Take a high-performing organic video, add a hard-hitting CTA banner, change the copy, and run it as a conversion ad.
• Posting frequency for LinkedIn: three posts a day, repeating the same core message in different forms.
• Platform ad products vary in maturity — TikTok ads can be volatile but explosive; LinkedIn ads carry higher CPMs but reach buyers with intent.
• Test the same ad on three platforms with a small budget ($55 each) before scaling.
• High CPMs on LinkedIn are not waste — better audience data means higher-value customers.

Podcasts as a content production engine

• Almost every business should have a podcast — guests do most of the work and generate clips for social.
• Podcast-while-doing-something format (activity + interview) is an underexploited genre with high shareability.
• Don't produce a podcast for the audience size; produce it to generate ad-ready creative.
• Half of social feeds are already podcast clips — the format is in demand.

Cohort-based content strategy

• One message delivered 73,000 different ways outperforms trying to say everything to everyone.
• Build distinct cohorts: e.g., "22–30 year old Gary V wannabes running sub-10-person agencies" vs. "45–60 year old Midwest agency owners."
• Each cohort gets different opening lines, tone, and platform — same core message, different wrapper.
• For nonprofits: an 83-year-old Upper West Side trustee and a 24-year-old Brooklyn artist both matter but need completely different storytelling.
• Grid aesthetics are irrelevant — nobody goes to your profile; everything happens in feed.
• Keeping separate accounts is now a non-issue: content quality determines reach, not account history.

Finding and capturing existing demand

• Don't spend time convincing the unconvincible — find the small group that already agrees and go deep.
• VaynerMedia's 2009 playbook: ignored the 90% who didn't want social media; found the 30 who did.
• Most businesses haven't reached 1% of the people who already want what they offer — fix that before worrying about expanding demand.
• The same principle applies to B2B agencies: one great LinkedIn video demonstrating operational excellence can prompt brands to send it to their current agency with instructions to hire you.

Overcoming vanity metrics and algorithm obsession

• Vanity metrics (CPMs, CTRs, follower counts, grid aesthetics) are a disease — they crowd out focus on actual business outcomes.
• The right question after every post: what do I want to happen? Then design content for that outcome.
• Every tenth post should be a hard-hitting business ask; the other nine build awareness and affinity.
• Agencies lose clients after year one by measuring jargon instead of revenue — leading with performance tracking is a differentiator.

Hiring a social media manager

• Before hiring, develop your own strategic conviction — know what you believe works and why.
• In the interview, ask candidates to present their strategy to you.
• Reject anyone who leads with grid aesthetics; it signals misaligned priorities.
• A strong hire will challenge your thinking, not just execute tasks.

AI as a thinking partner

• Current biggest AI use: ideation and consumer-insight exploration, not task execution.
• Prompt AI like a strategist: "Why did [trend] pop?" or "What would get people to buy a kayak in Des Moines, Iowa?"
• In 5–6 years, AI-assisted content will shift from dozens of ads to thousands — volume will become table stakes.
• Designers and strategists who ideate are safe; those who only execute instructions to spec are commoditised.

Conviction over convincing

• Conviction: telling the truth consistently until you break through.
• Convincing: guessing what the room wants to hear and adjusting accordingly.
• Agencies lose long-term because they say yes to everything clients want; conviction-based pushback is the actual differentiator.
• Young employees have more leverage than any previous generation due to technology shifts — use it through empathy, not arrogance.
• If you can't change the org's mind, run ads that bypass the problem (e.g., TikTok content that doesn't appear on the main grid).

Delivering value to your team and franchisees

• Over-delivery starts with wanting to hear the truth — most leaders fail because they avoid it.
• Run monthly all-franchisee calls with open Q&A, no pre-set questions.
• At a vulnerable stage (small franchisee base, mostly family), accountability and transparency drive retention far more than perks.
• Retention of the non-family franchisees is what keeps the business alive long enough to break through.