How to prepare, pivot, and invest to thrive through a recession

Executive overview

Most businesses hit recessions without a plan — and scramble reactively. The entrepreneurs who thrive do the opposite: they reposition before the downturn, increase marketing while others retreat, and acquire assets cheaply on the way out.

Jonathan Slain and co-author Paul Belair studied leaders who grew through the Great Recession. The pattern: eliminate low-value activities, pivot toward recurring revenue, and treat the downturn as an acquisition window.

Businesses that rock recessions act while others are still in denial — they reposition, spend, and acquire.

Why most businesses fail in a recession

• No plan means reactive decisions — you're left with the least-bad option
• Selling high-discretionary, one-time products is the worst position in a downturn
• Waiting for "normal" to return delays every move that actually matters
• Many owners are still in shock and denial — they haven't reached acceptance yet
• Acceptance is the prerequisite to acting offensively

The HVAC pivot: how Paul Belair turned $1M into $70M+

• Bought a company that was 80% installation, 20% service — heavily project-based
• Recognised that in a recession, customers patch rather than replace
• Pivoted to 80% service, 20% installation before the Great Recession hit
• Recurring service revenue is more stable and commands a higher exit multiple
• Sold the business 63 months later for over $70M

Playboy's recession playbook

• Recognised the magazine (highly discretionary) would lose sales in a downturn
• Pivoted to licensing the Playboy Bunny image — lower-cost products people still buy
• Increased marketing spend while competitors pulled back
• Every dollar spent on marketing in a recession goes further — competitors go quiet
• Affordable luxuries (not big-ticket items) are where recession spending concentrates

The eliminate-reduce-raise-create framework

• Derived from Blue Ocean Strategy; more actionable than SWOT analysis
• Eliminate: what are you doing that adds no customer value? (e.g. running your own cable)
• Reduce: what can you do less of to free up time and money?
• Raise: where should you invest more — technology, service, experience?
• Create: what has never been done in your industry? AI, sensors, automation, drones?
• Freed capacity from eliminating and reducing funds the raise and create moves

Finding the opportunity in the downturn

• Baby boomers who planned to exit pre-recession now face a 3–7 year recovery they don't want
• This creates a window to acquire businesses or partner with owners who want out
• Start conversations now — distressed sellers won't trust a buyer who calls when desperate
• Consumer staples and recurring-revenue businesses are strong positions for the next wave
• Bankruptcy courts reopening will produce a wave of deals and distressed assets

Adapting the customer experience

• Develop a "Cadillac" recession offering — the full premium package — then let clients pick from it
• Clients rarely buy the whole package; but it anchors what's possible and generates partial sales
• Small experience details matter disproportionately (e.g. wiping the card reader in front of customers)
• Virtual selling lowers commitment friction — a 20-minute Zoom is easier to get than a lunch
• Teams need deliberate energy on video: sound quality, lighting, breaks, personal moments