How to assess keyword difficulty using backlinks

Executive overview

No tool can guarantee a top Google ranking. Google uses hundreds of factors, and the full algorithm is unknown. Backlinks are the single strongest measurable signal for ranking potential.

The practical approach: analyse the backlink profiles of pages already ranking for your target keyword, then target keywords where top-ranking pages have few linking websites.

Why backlinks drive rankings

• Google cannot measure user behaviour (dwell time, pogo-sticking) until a page first reaches the top 10 — backlinks are what gets it there
• Links act as votes: each linking site tells Google that page is the best on its topic
• Ahrefs study of 2 million queries found backlink factors had the strongest correlation with Google ranking position
• Raw link count is not linear — other factors intervene — but it remains a dominant signal

When authority overrides relevance

• The "chocolate lab" example: 3 pages about Labrador Retrievers in general outrank 7 pages specifically about chocolate labs
• Their backlink volume was too large for Google to ignore, despite weaker topical relevance
• Pages with many backlinks tend to rank for many keywords and accumulate more traffic — reinforcing their authority

How to evaluate a keyword before targeting it

• Pull the top-ranking URLs for your target keyword into Ahrefs Site Explorer
• Record the number of referring domains for each page
• Prioritise keywords where top pages have few linking websites
• Avoid keywords where competitors have hundreds of linking domains — matching that link count is the barrier to entry