How to navigate new technologies before they go mainstream

Executive overview

Most people form strong opinions on emerging technologies — AI, NFTs, blockchain — without ever using them. By the time consensus forms, the opportunity is gone.

The window to build is when the technology looks broken. Fear, greed, and short-term thinking keep incumbents out; pattern recognition lets practitioners in early.

The real edge is being a practitioner, not a headline reader.

NFTs, blockchain, and the 1% rule

• NFT projects collapsed the same way internet stocks did in 2000 — overvaluation, then reset, not death
• The macro technology (decentralised ownership, blockchain contracts) remains intact regardless of brand damage
• Only 1% of any genre succeeds — films, apps, trading cards, NFTs — the mistake was expecting all projects to work
• In-game digital assets traded in closed ecosystems today will move to open blockchain ecosystems; gamers will own transferable assets across titles
• Day-to-day contracts — deeds, insurance, transactions — will increasingly run as NFTs because blockchain is a more secure contract layer
• Blockchain's verifiability is also the fix for deepfake proliferation: content uploaded to the blockchain can be authenticated

Why incumbents always miss new platforms

• Incumbents are not financially incentivised to support new technologies — their existing revenue is at risk
• Bill Gates dismissed the internet in the mid-90s; Hollywood dismissed it; pattern repeats with every platform shift
• Decisions made from short-term financial fear are consistently wrong about where consumer behaviour is heading
• Consumer engagement with blockchain and AI is at its highest level today — the signal is already there

AI as thinking partner, not job threat

• Fear that AI replaces creative jobs misframes the opportunity — AI is a thinking partner that accelerates the creative process
• The shift from library to search engine made research faster and more dynamic; AI does the same for ideation at a larger scale
• Practical use: query AI tools on cultural trends, consumer behaviour, pop signals — things that previously required large research teams
• Productions and creative outputs will be faster; ideas will be bigger because the technology guides exploration
• If AI can take your job, the role was already commoditised — the right response is to evolve, not fear

Concerns worth taking seriously

• Deepfakes are a legitimate near-term risk — three to four seconds of audio and existing images are enough to fabricate convincing video
• Within a decade, additional verification layers will be needed before trusting video content
• AI laziness risk: the tool could reduce effort rather than amplify it, particularly in creative fields
• The broader pattern — atomic bomb, internet misuse — is that powerful technologies are always dual-use; the answer is cat-and-mouse progress, not paralysis

Hollywood and gaming convergence

• Film directors are constrained to two hours; games allow deeper, longer stories with audience participation in the narrative
• Players can be co-creators, not just consumers — this changes the economics and affinity model for IP
• Cinematic production values (budget, visual craft) are now competitive with major Hollywood releases in AAA games
• Intellectual property built on gaming foundations — Mario, Zelda, Angry Birds — creates durable emotional attachment comparable to film or sport

Esports and the future of gaming

• Gaming has crossed into a cultural pillar alongside film, sport, and fashion — today is the industry's smallest point going forward
• Esports provides a professional competitive path for people who cannot reach traditional elite sport
• Social media distribution means a single post can reach 100 million people instantly — content creators shape team identity and audience
• Virtual reality adds immersion; formats like indoor golf leagues (TGL) show how esports models extend into traditional sports
• The gaming impulse is not new — board games, trading cards — this is the next scale of the same human behaviour